Top news, reports and insights for today:
- Daily headline summaries for Wednesday:
- The U.S. death rate from COVID-19 per 1 million people just passed 340. That’s more than 100 times the rate in China (Time)
- A trend toward a “second U.S. virus wave” emerges in 22 states after reopening (Bloomberg)
- As harvest season nears, outbreaks seen among migratory farm workers in North Carolina, Florida and Washington. The federal government has not made safety rules mandatory, leaving it to farmer’s discretion (Politico)
- Half the states (including California, Florida, North Carolina and New York) are failing to follow CDC guidelines and reporting probable coronavirus cases and deaths, leading to inconsistent and inaccurate surveillance (Washington Post)
- Back to where they started: Epidemiologic deja vu in 14 states that have matched or exceeded daily cases compared to April/May peaks
The President continues to say and do things that suggest he believes the epidemic is over and behind us. A journalist sent me an inquiry yesterday asking my opinion on whether a second wave might be in our future now that the first one is over. A new poll suggests that about half the country thinks it’s time to get back to normal life.
Huh? I remain puzzled and wonder what information people could possibly be looking at. Internationally, we have seen the epidemic move from country to country, rising and falling in the global whack-a-mole pandemic we are in. Months ago it was Italy, France and Spain in the hot seat. Now it’s Brazil, Peru, India, Russia and Chile. The same shifting is occurring in the U.S. as one state grows quiet as another surges. What strikes me when looking at the New York Times tracking data is just how many states seem to be right back where they were during the peak period of April and May. After looking closely, I believe there are 14 states that now meet or exceed the high water mark of daily cases. Take a look at the two image galleries below. The first one shows the 8 states where the recent 7-day moving average for daily new cases is higher (and in some cases much higher) than the peak in April/May. The second gallery is the 6 states where recent average daily cases are about the same as they were at the April/May peak. Some of these states are quite striking. Arizona averaged under 300 cases a day throughout April and May, and is now above 1,000 after an alarming rise starting May 27. Arkansas peaked at under 200 a day April 26 and has now risen to over 300 a day. California, North Carolina and Utah are all essentially on a continuous rise since the start of the outbreak with little notable drop off in new daily cases. Texas and Oregon both appeared to peak twice, with a corresponding dip in new cases in late May, but in both states, cases have surged to all time highs with continued transmission intensity. In the lower gallery, we see that Florida, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico and Tennessee, all had noticeable peaks in April/May, and all have seen resurgence of new cases back to about the same peak levels in recent days.
The bottom line: Overall, new cases remain close to flat in the U.S., as many states are seeing sustained declines. However, the rest of the story is that 14 states are right back to where they were in the peak period of April and May and 8 of those states are setting new records. Texas, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina and Mississippi were the most aggressive in reopening 2-3 weeks ago.
- Not just increased testing: COVID-19 hospitalization rates rising in reopening states, mirroring trend in rising cases
A story in Bloomberg highlights what the article calls a “second U.S. virus wave” emerging in reopening states. They mention that hospitalizations in Texas jumped 6.3% on Tuesday to 2,056, the highest total since the pandemic emerged. California hospitalizations are at their highest point since May 13 and have risen 9 of the last 10 days. This nudged me to go back to my favorite source of state-level data on hospitalizations from the COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project at the University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management. While their data doesn’t cover all states, the figure and table below captures a few that have surging cases. The graph shows daily COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 adults for 6 states. Since May 17, the largest increase has been in Arizona, where rates rose by 56%. North Carolina saw the second highest rate rise and 57%. Rates are up nearly a third in Kentucky, Texas and Utah. California is back to where it was in late April.
Why does this matter: Tracking hospitalizations may be a more accurate window into the epidemic than other measures that depend on testing. These data show, I believe, that hospitalizations are rising in line with expectations of post-reopening increases in transmission intensity. The situation in Arizona is especially extreme.
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